According to the market research and development agency Tuoba Industrial Research Institute, the supply of MO source gas, which is the main raw material of LED epitaxial in 2010, is expected to be significantly eased by 2011. As for the supply and demand of sapphire substrates, the supply and demand of sapphire substrates will remain tight, but will gradually Tend to balance. Mainly because upstream material manufacturers are actively expanding production on a large scale, compared with the speed at which LED epitaxial/grain mills actually introduce MOCVD machines, they are slow due to doubts about the terminal market. Based on this estimation, LED epitaxial plants such as Jingdian, Handan, New Century, Taigu, etc., the cost pressure in 2011 will be expected to be reduced quarter by quarter.
As for the operational performance of Taiwan's LED epitaxial/grain factory in 2011, whether it can gradually improve with the pressure of cost reduction, we must also observe the penetration rate of large-size LCD TV LED backlights, the progress of LED lighting applications, and China. Continental, South Korea and other competitors are expected to expand production and grab the order.
In terms of sapphire substrates, Yang Shengfan, deputy director of the Tuoba Industrial Research Institute, said that global sapphire substrate manufacturers are now actively expanding production. Last year, the global supply and demand ratio of sapphire substrates was about 82%, which is a situation in which demand exceeds supply. If the expansion speed of the MOCVD machine of the global LED epitaxial industry this year is also implemented as planned by various manufacturers, the supply demand ratio of global sapphire substrates in 2011 may still be maintained at around 82%, which is still in short supply. But this is not the case now.
Yang Shengfan said that according to recent surveys, although the production capacity of sapphire substrates is still actively expanding (especially, Yunnan Yuxi Blue Crystal in mainland China plans to expand 1.6 times in 2011, and if it is completed, it may become the world's largest supplier of sapphire substrates), but LED The speed at which the epitaxial manufacturer introduced the MOCVD machine has slowed down.
This is because LED epitaxial manufacturers are worried that the actual LED supply will suddenly be a bit too much. If the MOCVD machine expansion speed slows down, the supply demand ratio of global sapphire substrates in 2011 may increase to 90%-95%, so Will be close to the balance of supply and demand, but it will not be oversupply.
Based on the calculation of 2 inches of substrate, according to Tuoba estimates, the number of new MOCVD machines in 2010 was 720, the total number of MOCVD machines installed in the world reached 1,521, and the demand for sapphire substrates reached 42.4 million. If there are 831 MOCVD machines in the world in 2011 (according to the manufacturer's plan), the total number of MOCVD machines installed in the world will reach 2,352, and the global demand for sapphire substrates will increase to 72.1 million.
According to the expansion plans of various manufacturers, the global supply of sapphire substrates in 2010 will be approximately 37.85 million, and will increase to 59 million in 2011. Based on this calculation, if the global MOCVD machine expansion in 2011 is only 600 units, the supply and demand of sapphire plates will be balanced this year.
In terms of MO source gas, the current major suppliers include Rohm & Haas in the United States, DOW in the United States, SAFC in the United Kingdom, AKZO in the Netherlands, Jiangsu Nanda in China, Sumitomo in Japan, and UPChem in South Korea. The total global demand for MO gas in 2010 is about 27-56 tons, estimated 2011. Annual demand will increase to 42-86 tons. However, as various MO source gas suppliers have more or less expansion plans in 2011, and the actual number of MOCVD machines installed has shown signs of slowing down, Tuoba expects that the supply and demand of global MO source gases in 2011 It will also gradually ease, and the price of MO source gas will also decline quarter by quarter.
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