Recently, the domestic LED industry authoritative industry research and consulting organization - Gaogong LED Industry Research Institute and Shen Wan Research Cooperation, officially released the "4th Quarter 2011 LED Industry Analysis and Investment Strategy Report".
Since 2010, while many companies from outside the industry have flooded into the LED packaging business in the middle of the industry chain and the downstream LED lighting business, LED companies in the industry have also accelerated the pace of expansion, mainly in the expansion of packaging and lighting business capacity. Vertical integration of the industrial chain. To this end, more and more companies are listed on small and medium-sized boards, GEM and Hong Kong. A number of listed companies have raised financing for semiconductor lighting projects, and more companies have entered the stage of listing preparation. Leveraging the capital market will further enhance the development speed of the domestic LED industry.
The High-tech LED Industry Research Institute has been committed to the market research and research of the LED industry in China and the world. It publishes the research report on the LED upstream and downstream industry chain every year, and publishes the authoritative LED market research data from time to time. The High-tech LED Industry Research Institute has chosen to cooperate with well-known securities research and consulting institutions in China to provide investors with comprehensive, authoritative and timely LED industry analysis and investment strategy recommendations.
The following is a summary of some of the report:
Industry depth: Boom adjustment into the late lighting applications to popularize
LEDs are a typical technology-driven industry, and new applications are gradually being opened. From the 2000-2010 decade, LED lumens fell at an annual rate of 28%, and it is expected to maintain a 25% cost reduction rate in the next 2-3 years. The growth momentum of LED demand will be mainly in the field of TV backlighting and general lighting.
LED lighting is entering an era of accelerated universal application, and the price drop logic will work. The LED lamp can be ex-factory price of 7-8 yuan/watt. Compared with T8, it has obvious economics in commercial applications. The price of downlight is slightly higher, but it is also economical compared with energy-saving lamps. It is expected that lighting products will still be Decline at an annual rate of 20% or more. Lighting applications will surpass backlighting as the main driver of LED demand growth in 2012, and we expect the LED lighting market to grow by 60% and 67% respectively in 2011-12.
The domestic LED lighting application is about to start lighting subsidy policy is worth looking forward to. Commercial lighting will be the first to be launched in China, but due to the lack of standards, product confusion has made it difficult for users to accurately predict the performance of LED products. We believe that if the subsidy policy is implemented, it will increase the user's awareness of LED products through unified product standards and demonstration applications. We expect the LED lighting industry related policies to be clear in the 4th quarter of 2011.
In terms of investment strategy, it is recommended to select individual stocks based on lighting application and booming trend. It is recommended to focus on packaging and application fields in the context of current chip price decline expectations, and focus on epitaxial chip stocks after stable chip prices. There is a certain pressure on the overall LED industry sales in the third quarter, and the business growth will slow down significantly, which has been expected by the recent stock price performance.
In the medium and long term, Hongli Optoelectronics and Ruifeng Optoelectronics are domestically competitive manufacturers in the field of lighting packaging, and will benefit from the rise of LED lighting applications.
Sunlight Lighting actively seeks industrial transformation and will be the direct beneficiary of the incandescent lamp ban policy, and it is also worthy of attention. In the second half of the year, the new machine will be put into production, and CPV is the main focus of judging its potential for continued growth. Sanan Optoelectronics LED has obvious cost advantages, and its integrated layout of CPV also has potential cost competitiveness. The short-term production release process is worthy of attention.
(This report was jointly launched by Shenwan Research and Gaogong LED)
About Shanghai Shenyin Wanguo Securities Research Institute Co., Ltd.
Founded in 1992, Shanghai Shenyin Wanguo Securities Research Institute Co., Ltd. ("Shenwan Research") is a holding subsidiary of Shenyin Wanguo Securities Co., Ltd. It is the earliest, largest and independent legal entity in mainland China. Sexual securities research advisory body. Shenwan Research has a portfolio of about 200 securities research services, focusing on 500 Chinese listed companies, involving China's economy, institutions, financial markets, various industries, listed companies and stocks, bonds, funds, derivatives, financial products. Full coverage and systemic securities research and advisory services in areas such as design and investment strategies.
Shenwan Research has always ranked among the top commissions in the service market of fund companies, and has ranked first in the comprehensive evaluation of securities services of the National Social Security Fund Council for many years. In the activities of independent media organizations such as “New Fortune†and “Securities Market Weekly†and involving domestic institutional investors, Shenwan Research has won “the most influential research institutions†and “the most independent research institutions for many yearsâ€. "and the best local (gold medal) research team" and many other honors.
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