Imports are now negative growth Foreign trade weakness or accelerated stimulus policies introduced

On the 10th, the General Administration of Customs announced the August import and export data. In August, the total import and export value of China reached 329.29 billion U.S. dollars, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year; of which, the increase in imports fell from 4.7% in July to -2.6%, Negative growth for the first time in months. Experts predict that given the continuing downturn in the European and American economies, the basic situation of weak external demand has not changed. Some experts have pointed out that due to external economic drag, China is unlikely to achieve the goal of a 10% increase in annual trade growth.

It is difficult to realize the goal of increasing trade by 10% throughout the year

Data show that in August, China achieved import and export trade of US$329.286 billion, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, of which exports stood at US$177.973 billion, which was a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which was 1.7 percentage points higher than July and imports of US$151.133 billion, which was a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%. The trade surplus in the month reached 26.661 billion U.S. dollars.

It is not difficult to see that due to the European debt crisis and the global economic downturn, external demand has continued to be weak, resulting in the fact that China’s export situation in August has not been fundamentally improved. In August, exports to the United States increased by 2.96% year-on-year, 2.4% faster than in July; exports to the EU dropped by 12.7% year-on-year, slightly improving the trade situation between the United States and Europe. August was basically stable to ASEAN and Russia. The growth rate was maintained at about 10%, and the export to Brazil was obviously worsened, down by 14% year-on-year, and the decline rate was expanded by 10.7%.

According to the “Beijing Times” report on the 11th, Lu political commissar of the Industrial Bank’s Chief Economist believes that the downturn in exports is closely related to the economic downturn, and investment has a limited effect on the economy. Local government investment has experienced the lowest rate of growth since 2000, which illustrates the current state of local government investment. Compared with local governments, the central government’s investment has begun to pick up, but investment’s pull on economic growth is not sustainable, and the impact on exports is also limited.

Not only that, the previously introduced policy of expanding domestic demand also turned capacity into a rampage. Import growth slipped from -4.7% in July to -2.6%, the first negative growth in seven months. If this year is deducted in January (Spring Festival), it will be 2009. The first negative growth since October.

The continuous decline in monthly foreign trade data since the beginning of this year has also made it increasingly difficult to achieve the goal of 10% growth in imports and exports throughout the year. Liu Ligang, chief economist of ANZ Greater China, pointed out that foreign trade data in August showed that the external environment has not significantly improved and it is expected that a series of measures to promote foreign trade will be introduced soon. However, because external demand is not within the control of China, China still has Need to stimulate domestic demand in order to maintain economic growth.

Foreign trade stimulus policy will be introduced

At present, while China's export growth is weak at the same time, imports have turned negative after seven months. The market expects that due to the expectation that the growth rate of foreign trade will stop falling and rising in the third quarter, a large number of stimulus measures to stabilize foreign trade may soon be introduced.

On the 9th of this month, Minister of Commerce Chen Deming once stated that the State Council will further study the policy of stabilizing foreign trade growth. For example, it is necessary to reduce various charges, clear unreasonable unnecessary charges, and focus on increasing the import of advanced technology and equipment and household items closely related to the people.

At the same time, the policy of stabilizing foreign trade must also focus on long-term effectiveness. According to the Xinhua News Agency on the 10th, China International Studies Association, China International Research Center co-owner Wei Wen believes that the implementation of a series of policies and measures approved by the State Council to support steady growth in foreign trade is conducive to providing stable expectations for foreign trade companies.

Some experts predict that the call for a new foreign policy will become more and more intense. In August, foreign trade data may accelerate the introduction of the New Deal. The "Economic Information Daily" reported on the 11th that, after investigating the coastal areas, relevant departments are brewing a new round of policies to maintain stability in foreign trade growth. The New Deal will cover quality inspection, customs clearance, credit, insurance and other aspects. The export tax rebate rate may be increased. Another insider of the Ministry of Commerce stated that the Ministry of Commerce is studying a series of new policies to maintain stability in foreign trade growth, and is expected to disclose it at the regular ministry conference of the Ministry of Commerce in the middle of this month.