Innovation, Risk, and Supervision: What is the New Financial Model? Sina C+

The second Sina C+ summit officially opened in Beijing this morning. In the morning's financial technology forum, guests discussed around the issues of innovation, risk, and supervision of the new financial model. Du Yan, vice president of Yingfan Research Institute, was the host of the forum. The guests involved in the discussion included Yang Tao, Assistant Director of the Institute of Finance of the Academy of Social Sciences; Xu Yaoqi, Chief Operating Officer of Zheshang International Finance Asset Center; Jin Lin, Vice President of Jingdong Finance; Zhong An. Deputy General Manager of Insurance Wu Hao and General Manager Zhou Zhihan of Kaixin Loan.

Transform traditional finance: "Do not just use the Internet as a channel"

Du Yan: Before we talked about internet finance, we are talking about finctech. You have both researchers and one-line practitioners, and all of you here are not doing traditional finance. Do you think Finctech and Internet finance are the most fundamental changes to traditional finance? How do you see this new financial innovation?

Yang Tao: To say some personal views, the theme of today's forum is science and technology, and finance is embedded as a typical object. When we think about new finance and traditional finance from the perspective of research, we need to make a logical distinction. When it comes to what is financial, we can see that it can be evaluated from the perspective of elements, and it can also be evaluated from the perspective of function. The element angle is a financial system: including financial institutions, financial products, financial markets, and financial systems. From the perspective of financial function, a financial system can do, including these payment clearing, resource allocation, risk management, information management, etc., the simplest concept in such textbooks. What we are looking at now is nothing but technological changes from the perspective of the function of these phenomena.

To further understand the new finance, I personally find it difficult to define what is traditional finance and new finance, and only financial technology that is constantly changing under the influence of technology. The financial changes brought about by this technology can actually be viewed from the perspectives of both supply and demand. From the perspective of demand, it is the challenge and evolution of a multi-system approach arising from the new economic and social organization modes of new technologies, such as the intelligentization, decentralization of the economy, decentralization of social organizations, and some small and beautiful intelligent production. The continuous evolution of methods will inevitably bring about important challenges to the commonality of financial services.

The second is from the supply side. Technology itself can directly affect the way financial operations work. This may have some good influences, such as the use of low-cost technical methods, which can solve the problems in traditional finance such as information asymmetry, search costs, etc., and realize the possibility to open planes in some financial Bermuda Triangle areas. But on the other hand, technology may also bring some new challenges to finance, some potential risks. All in all, when talking about new finance, I think it comes from the impact of these two levels on the changes in the existing financial system.

Xu Yaoqi: I used to spend time in the financial industry. In BlackRock, we all know that it is the world's largest asset management company, but we do not know that it uses a software to manage assets of more than 1 million customers around the world with 8 trillion US dollars. - BlackRad solutions. This solution has two pillars, one is the power of science and technology, power to power, computing power, storage capacity are more than 10 to the 9th power, this is a magical figure. The 9th power of the Earth's 10th is the Milky Way, and many of the 9th powers of 10 are changed from quantitative to qualitative . This is the power of technology.

The second is the power of service. I have summed it up. It must be to connect services, to provide content services after connection , then the entire hardware service, and then to form software services through manual control. Next, we must turn it into a platform. Anyone can participate in me. I can also participate in anybody, but the ultimate form, but the collaboration to create value rather than conflicts of interest, this is a big trend of the future of finance, one is the trend of technology, the other is the trend of service.

Jin Lin: I said some things we specifically do. For example, we know that the Jingdong white bar is a star product of Jingdong Finance. The risk of financial white bars, the traditional bank credit card center is usually 40 to 50 financial variables, built into one or two wind control models, and these risk control models are basically more imaginary, but the bank has a different financial strategy. However, now the financial and financial frontier, after more than two years of evolution and continuous improvement, our model now covers financial data on the one hand, including some data used by banks for credit card approval. It also includes a series of data left by the person in the Jingdong e-commerce scene, including browsing data, purchase data, and address data. The address data is also updated in real time, including a series of data such as search. We also have a series of other data portals, able to find out about its browsing data, search data, etc. on the entire network. Our current wind control model has more than 10,000 wind control indicators. Through machine learning, we have now generated more than 200 risk control strategies. Each of these risk control strategies cannot be as strong as the risk control model of the bank's credit card center, but each sub-model reinforces and validates each other. For our future long-term credit risk management capabilities, the credit risk pricing capability will be more effective in the long term. Or, to provide financial institutions with a completely new and different solution, we are still more confident.

Du Yan: I interrupted a bit. A lot of listeners are partial IT and technology. Can you translate it ? Let's say it in one or two sentences. You just inserted a good small advertisement and introduced Jingdong’s financial control. Where does it differ from traditional finance?

Jin Lin: Traditional finance deals with a limited number of variables with limited human intelligence, but with the variables we can obtain, the risk control index has changed from tens to tens of thousands. At this time, our risk control capability is no longer applicable. Traditional statistical regression modelling, more use of the big data model, and machine learning patterns, allow the machine to find out correlations and verify correlations. Finally, these things can be further integrated. The technology behind this is two parts. The advantages and disadvantages of the algorithm are good and bad. It is not the main factor that the algorithm is good or bad at first, but the data and the application scene are the main factors. The data is the input variable and the scene is the feedback mechanism. Therefore, the same is true of the entire credit risk management capability. First, there must be a lot of input. Jingdong Finance, we are a financial technology company, but we put loans, because we have a large number of X after coming in. We need to have Y, we form a self-recycling system, there are a large number of wind control variables at the same time have their own application scenarios, credit risk management and In the context of consumer credit, our model will continue to evolve rapidly.

Du Yan: Its data sources and wind control methods are not the same as traditional finances. They rely more on algorithms and data to complete them.

Wu Hao: The first difference is that it is very easy to use the Internet as a channel or a tool for obtaining customers in traditional finance. We understand that Internet finance must first be able to regard the Internet as an ecosystem as a way of life, a kind of technology and financial means. Connection association.

I would like to say to everyone that finance is actually a technology. It is indeed a little bit far from science. Therefore, when we talk about financial technology, it is actually a new development in the financial and technological field. It includes hardware, software, and a new discipline related to changes in the entire Internet environment. Let me give you a few concrete examples. For example, we just started last month, Zhong An is doing on the logistics vehicle, highway automatic post-paid products, this product throughout the application process from the OBD technology, OBU technology, ABU technology, as well as including the entire technology, Connected, there is only behind this tool. So it is a combination of financial technology and technology.

Now we begin to use walking steps as an index of health insurance pricing. This is an Internet of Things technology, people are also part of the future, and a combination of IoT technologies and financial pricing technologies. Now we have broken screen insurance for secondhand phones that we sell online.

Du Yan: Could you please tell us your understanding of the changes in the new financial system?

Wu Hao: What I just said is an example. It must be a combination of financial technology and science and technology, not just the Internet .

Du Yan: Zhou Zong, why do I let everyone talk about innovation? When talking about internet finance, everybody will say a word that the nature of finance has not changed. What is your change?

Zhou Zhihan: First, the essence of finance is risk control. Everyone has a consensus. Second, the same thing, we can do it in another way, and may have different results. So, change is in the organization. There is a change in the form of financial services organization. Around 2000, there was a wave of e-commerce. Everyone emphasized knowledge management and emphasized that the organizational structure of an enterprise has changed from a large enterprise group to a virtual organization. At present, in the field of financial services, we observe similar trends. With the evolution of Internet finance, many advantageous individual nodes are combined by way of networks to provide consumers with the original ones, relying on banks, etc. Organization to provide services. For example, many small rural loan companies are close to customers, but they lack funding sources. In this case, we can use the Internet to integrate the nodes that have unique risk control advantages. Together, they play a role. This is something we try to do in the organization. At present, it looks good.

The second difference is that it reduces anxiety for everyone's life. When companies apply for loans, I don’t know when they can apply. I don’t know when the funds will be in place. I don’t know how much the interest rate will be finalized. However, with the application of this technical level, what is the process of all applications? The arrival of prices and time has greatly improved the efficiency of corporate management and greatly reduced the company’s own operating costs.

Du Yan: Just now in their introduction, we not only saw the drive of some new technologies, but also saw that in product innovation, it is really not a traditional financial thinking to design products. This innovation includes three aspects of finance: Finance is the core of finance, the supply side of finance, the core of financing and the entire risk control of finance. You will find that as the technology is driven in these three aspects, new changes have taken place in the way of obtaining customers, risk management, and organization management.

Risk changes with technology, how do you view new risks?

Du Yan: We all know that the financial industry itself has a very strong feature of attaching an external route. Finance will produce a very strong external additive effect and leverage effect. Due to the technology's drive, technology brings us a lot of convenience in risk identification and discovery at the same time. Since the technology drive will also bring us these new breeding risks, how do we look at the dividends it brings, and whether there are things that need to arouse our vigilance and prevention? So, the second keyword risk. First ask Mr. Yang.

Yang Tao: Risk itself is the core element of finance and the most basic function. It requires different perspectives when understanding new technologies and new financial risks. On the one hand, we discuss the impact of new technologies on new finances, and there may be some risk judgments on the pure financial technology level. On the other hand, there may be another level of risk judgment regarding the changes in the systems and rules that these technologies may bring.

The risk assessment in the former level is nothing more than the screening and quantification of financial risks. In the segmentation and quantification process, it can be classified as systemic risk or non-systematic risk. From a systematic perspective, the threats to financial stability in the past were mainly large but not falling institutions. However, in the new era of the Internet, there have been a lot of, although the overall scale is limited, but many nodes are connected, many Small customers and many new financial service models of long-tailed populations will not have the effect of network transmission here. This has different screening for new financial challenges at the system level.

From a non-systematic point of view, the traditional focus on financial risks often creates new problems under the challenges of the new system. In the past, the financial industry often stated that KOIC and AML were responsible for anti-money laundering. Such issues would not produce new contradictions and problems under the impact of new technologies. This is also worth our attention.

In this process, the new technology brings a double-edged sword effect. On the one hand, it does improve efficiency and reduce costs. On the other hand, it may bring new problems and new risks. As we now talk about Internet finance, since the beginning of this century, new technologies have been used in European and American capital markets. High-frequency trading is developing very fast. It is a double-edged sword for all countries.

What is at this level is not the controllability and non-controllability of financial risks, but good finances and bad finances. The concept of market ethics is introduced here. Because in the development of finance, there are also some so-called phenomena of separation from entities, the so-called self-finance of finance, and the pursuit of profits from capital is natural. After introducing new technologies, can this contradiction be aggravated? This is worth thinking about. . To give an example, we know historically that the first appearance of financial governance in the country was the speculator of the capital market; the earliest Meng Changjun was still usury. This question of financial origin can be resolved by using new technologies instead of aggravating them. This is another risk issue that we consider.

Du Yan: Ms. Yang analyzes some of the uncertainties and risks it faces from the institutional and macro level. What risks do these technologies bring to us that we need to be vigilant and prevent?

Xu Yaoqi : People, three major risks, war, natural disasters and financial risks. For hundreds of years, there have been four major categories of financial risks: currency risk has been out of control, credit risk has been out of control, leverage has been out of control, and liquidity management has been out of control. Many people say that financial risk is the effective avoidance and management of the three major risks. From the money supply, there were more than 50 kinds of digital currency before 2008. In 2009, more than 1,000 mathematical currencies or scientific currencies were proposed after the blockchain. The concept of risk removal that we mentioned is decentralized. More than a thousand kinds of currencies, and all are quantitative supply, not unlimited supply of money.

Trust and decentralization mean trust, and the cost of centralization is very high. All storms in the past 200 years have been caused by the government, and the government is the only center. Decentralization is therefore a service. It can remove risks from the center. .

The use of liquidity and leverage must be coordinated. In the past when I was working at Barclays, Barclays took part in a project called SAVE. Three years after the company was founded, the world’s 50 largest financial institutions were involved. Last year, SAVE began to participate in a transactional experiment. Accountants, lawyers, custodial banks, financial regulators, and courts are all linked to this blockchain. This blockchain is a kind of multicentricity, which is at least finance. The first step to risk is to allow these financial information to be fully disclosed and to enter into a virtuous circle of feedback mechanisms. I think from these four aspects, we can effectively make supervision and risk control intelligent in the coming decades.

Du Yan: Just now Xu mentioned the blockchain and decentralization. This is a very popular word now. But I would like to ask that financial development itself, especially in recent years, has slowly been centered, including the establishment of central banks and the three sessions, including some major mergers, and you will find that finances have become big. Do not fall worry. In the past few decades, finance has been moving toward a continuous center with the development of trade and economy. But blockchain technology gives us room for decentralized imagination. In a decentralized world, will it breed new risks? What kind of impact will it have on the financial architecture that is built entirely from the center? Because Jin Zong used to do research, can you share something in this area?

Jin Lin: Including decentralization, blockchain, Bitcoin, and P2P were once considered to have brought beyond the financial laws. But my point of view is not the same. This round of the rise of Internet finance, the beginning of Internet finance in early 2013, the main driving force is regulatory arbitrage . When internet finance activities begin to develop under new technologies, new conditions, and new platforms, supervision needs to re-identify and re-identify, such as discovering the New World, how to establish a government's governance structure in the New World, and whether the governance structure is British-style or whether More democratization, more inclusion of aboriginal or new immigrants as a member of it, rather than in accordance with the bicameral system. This series of structural designs needs re-regulation. However, we see that the opinions of the 10 ministries in 2015 are basically the process of formatting the standard financial supervision ideas. After the completion of this process, we have seen a lot of things landed. Basically, the nature of finance has become very clear. Bitcoin, for example, is just a currency. It is just like the value of collectibles, like sparks and stamps. It has a niche market, but it is not a currency. It does not have the nature of a generic equivalent. For example P2P, it is more appropriate to split it into an online application portal, run under some stronger financial attribute licenses, and its ROE may be more effective. In the United States, did I communicate with one? Your assets of 10 billion US dollars, according to the 0.8% ROI of traditional banks, you should now be close to 10 billion US dollars in profits. They said that we are not profitable now, if we do this we will be recognized as a bank. But we look at its valuation, 2 times PB, basically a better bank's valuation.

Returning to the original source, we can see the long-term effectiveness of each model from the background of initial regulatory arbitrage and regulatory costs tending to be consistent. Why do we need supervision? Because negative externalities are the big background of the entire financial supervision, because we know why banks need to have capital adequacy requirements. You don't have capital to put money back in, and if you do, you will drag down a group of peers.

After 2008, many banks were forced to further increase their capital requirements because after discovering 2008 and 2007, everyone saw that the bank's overall capital adequacy ratio is still not enough, because you are taking too many risks, like overseas brokers. Also, the leverage ratio of an overseas broker is 30 times, and the leverage ratio of Chinese brokers is 3 times. We see too much of this risk of financial expansion. When we look back, whether institutions with small-sum loans and loans on the Internet have sufficient margins to guarantee their repayment commitments, if not, what guarantees will they rely on? If you have problems with yourself, how can you shoulder external liquidity? At this time we will think of something that needs to be reorganized according to the existing risk framework.

We acknowledge that the subject of Internet finance is finance, including the recognition of financial core capabilities that cannot be evaded, including the recognition that financial supervision cannot be avoided.

Du Yan: That is to say, its risk actually has nothing to do with traditional finance. It requires a traditional structure to monitor.

Jin Lin: Online lending and offline lending require a comparison of business relationships.

Wu Hao: Maybe we do insurance is not the same as everyone. The first problem is that the borders between financial risks and technological risks are becoming more and more blurred . It has happened several times last year. The Internet company's lines have been cut down. This means that the system itself brings convenience, expandability and dissemination. A substantial increase, but at the same time the risk of financial risks itself, the problem that arises between these two things is the multiplier effect, and even a hardware failure can lead to a risk, quickly expanding the geometric progression.

The technology itself has changed the risk. It is not the previous risk, and it will have a disruptive impact on the financial products themselves. Let me give an example. For example, autopilot technology and new energy technologies may all people realize that its impact on the future of auto insurance will be enormous. All experience of the current auto insurance is based on the experience of risk management accumulated during the past few decades in the internal combustion engine and artificial driving. But the superposition of these two new technologies makes the car no longer a human-controlled device, but an automated device, and the car no longer needs to be repaired. The car, like a mobile phone, is mostly compared to wearing parts. So this is just an example in the insurance field.

In the banking industry will not be the kind of tung-like example? I believe that the same is true because risk itself is driven and changed by technology. It is no longer the original risk, and the original product and risk criteria are completely ineffective.

Du Yan: In other words, the risk itself may have to redefine the connotation, boundary and extension. How do you feel about Zhou?

Zhou Zhihan: I think that in fact, on the one hand, it reduces the uncertainty of our lives and reduces many anxiety. But on the other hand, any data collection for risk is an invasion of privacy. It collects in various ways. Why can you price it accurately? For example, I can identify whether the payment was made by you or whether it could be misappropriated. It is to collect information on your location. Is it in your usual location to use your commonly used equipment to conduct activities during your regular use? ?

On the other hand, you say that these trajectories of daily activities are recorded by your mobile phone. Your daily habits of these behaviors are being recorded. If these habits are leaked, what will happen? Previously in this centralized form of management, these data may be in the telecommunications company or a very limited range of data custodians. But in this case, probably a lot of software will take the initiative to collect your location information and collect a variety of your information. Of course, we can now turn off these permissions on the Android system, but there are some software that can't use these permissions, so this is a double-edged sword. On the other hand, we need to put even greater demands on the protection of information security.

Du Yan: I just saw the core of the driving force of the new financial system. If we say that traditional finance surrounds the two ends of the balance sheet, the new financial people actually say that in the future there may be Banking without Bank, which surrounds it. The core is data. At the same time it also brings a double-edged sword like Zhou Zong said. In this case, everyone applies unlimited data while capturing and capturing data. But at the same time, it does provide protection for personal privacy and personal information protection. A very big challenge. This leads us to the following problem. I think that in fact, for them, supervision will find that in the development of new finance, it has challenged many things, including existing rules, existing laws, and even Now the entire regulatory framework. In fact, China is indeed adjusting this regulatory reform. We certainly do not have a clear framework for the future governance structure of the three parties. However, indeed, the development of new finance has brought them a very big challenge.

Talking about supervision : reducing regulatory arbitrage and improving effectiveness

Du Yan: I would like to listen to everyone's point of view, that is to say, we see that we need to protect it. We are going to develop and innovate, but at the same time it is really breeding and born with a lot of risks. How to protect innovation, but also to effectively control the risk, do a good balance between the two, where should supervision start ?

Yang Tao: The time is limited. I simply summarize a few points. Finally fell into the supervision of several aspects to express:

The first aspect is also old-fashioned, from subject supervision to function supervision . Although this has been said in the past, it has not done enough. Why do you say this? Because the new technology has caused the traditional financial institutions to become more and more blurred with the borders of the new financial institutions, it has become increasingly difficult for so-called children who are holding them away because we have no idea who their children are. In this case, it may be necessary for everyone to raise children together to punish children who have problems, problems, and rules. This is the first point of view.

The second point of view is like how Zhou Quan has talked about how to achieve balance between efficiency and risky perception. This is a top priority. There is a need to reverse many of the viewpoints that were not necessarily completely correct in the past. For example, is the risk as low as possible? No, there may be distortions in pricing if there is a rigid payment. In other words, is the higher the efficiency of financial transactions, the better? The more real-time the better, this is not necessarily, and sometimes it may bring about the spread of some irreversible risks.

Third, the problems faced by China's financial supervision today are not only under the challenges faced by the traditional financial industry but also with a large number of financial and civil issues . This is something we must identify.

Fourth, the use of new technologies can be fully introduced during the regulatory process. For example, the British FCA, we all know to talk about the so-called RegTech concept.

The regulatory authorities in the Fifth China have been given more supervisory functions, because the supervision itself has to a great extent guard against the minimization of risks, and at the same time it also gives the reforms and many more goals. For example, in addition to the stability of the market, securities regulators must support poor areas and support state-owned enterprises. In addition to guarding against bank systemic risks, banks also support certain businesses in certain areas that may generate bad debts.

All of these, I think the future needs further scrutiny. Although the department is responsible for financial supervision, the task of reform may need to be stripped to some extent.

Du Yan: With supervision in place, we can see how Xu always thinks.

Xu Yaoqi: In terms of supervision, the six major trading entities of China's Yinxin Securities and Securities Co., Ltd. will further tighten in the next 10 to 20 years because of arbitrage. Financial risks arise because of arbitrage, and the biggest risks come from government arbitrage, financial industry arbitrage, physical industry arbitrage, individual enterprise arbitrage, and even individual investor arbitrage. Basel III will regulate the production of these arbitrage in the future. The first is that financial institutions must have adequate risk capital accruals, the second must improve the internal control system, and the third must fully disclose market discipline. In the face of future FinTech's impact, these three pillars may further change, and risk accruals will change to risk transfer.

For example, after the financial turmoil, the top ten banks in the world have almost collapsed. However, one financial institution has instantly tripled in size, changing from 2 trillion US dollars to 4 trillion US dollars and transferring risks. Let the people who take the risk to get paid, arbitrage, do not let those who do not take risks get paid, so that the entire financial market will fail. The internal control was changed to intelligent control, and the internal control was centralized, not a universal value, not an intelligent control. After the development of the future FinTech, the supervision of this block must take into account the intelligent control. We talk about market discipline, which is one-way, is disclosed, and must be upgraded to market collaboration. Both parties involved, conflicting parties, supervision, and some collaborative service providers must upgrade market incentives to market collaboration.

I'm very optimistic about the future of FinTech, although there are still a lot of strange risks arising from this middle process. But overall, we have a better regulatory environment.

Du Yan: How does Jin see?

Jin Lin: In fact, supervision is not only facing the risks of FinTech in this area, but actually the challenge in the traditional field is even greater. Because under the framework of separate supervision, businesses still face the same type of business. The fact that different business entities do things under supervision costs is not the same. As a result, there is huge room for regulatory arbitrage. There are many banks in China, and there are also many brokerage firms in China. The fund's asset management companies do a lot of things like regulatory arbitrage and make a lot of money. In fact, as a whole, supervision is a matter of necessity, something that cannot be done, something that cannot be done may be more business-related things, and more commitment to something more complicated, such as some of the reforms mentioned earlier. Functions. But on the other hand, what supervision should do is to basically clarify and flatten the supervision costs of each channel, especially the regulatory costs that are closer to the business, so that the space for regulatory arbitrage can be effectively reduced. So I think this is still a lot of inter-ministerial coordination that needs to be done for supervision. Regardless of whether there is a possibility of merger in one line or three, or whether there will be a large number of economic behaviors in one line or three, external risk control actually depends on continuous optimization of the regulatory arbitrage environment. This is a continuous process .

Du Yan: Reduce regulatory arbitrage, improve supervision effectiveness, and ensure fair supervision.

Jin Lin: The degree of supervision of analogical financial activities existing in different channels is similar, and the higher the risk, the higher the degree of supervision of activities.

Du Yan: How does Wu always look?

Wu Hao: If it is only from the insurance industry that it is the most supportive of Internet finance or new areas, and it is the first to have a clear policy, it has always been to encourage openness, and there are clear policy guidelines. So we should say that we are still very happy to live. The second thing I want to say is that as China's financial characteristics, very few countries have left insurance outside when they talk about finance. If I don't come today, everyone in this room is sure that the financial market is definitely the subject of insurance. As insurance is one of the major financial instruments, the current proportion in China is too low. When you talk about finance, you rarely consider that insurance is the main risk management tool, and it is almost the last line of defense.

I think that in the future large-scale supervision system, there are many guidance and transformations that the government is currently doing. Insurance is a very important member of the financial system as a whole, and it is hoped that the entire financial industry will need to Learn, understand, and understand the role and significance of insurance as a financial tool.

Du Yan: How does Zhou look?

Zhou Zhihan: In fact, we can see two trends from some recent regulatory policies. The first is based on the supervision of information disclosure; the second is based on industry self-regulation. In particular, the details of the recent August 24th online lending clearly stated the role of industry self-regulatory organizations in supervision. In fact, I think this is more in line with the current development trend of Internet finance. Through information disclosure and through industry self-discipline, it is actually reducing the information asymmetry between investors and institutions, and can make some of the original opaque information public through various channels. For example, the specific operating conditions, leverage ratios, etc. of some specific organizations that were originally considered to be confidential. In this way, the cost of supervision can be substantially reduced. In the current situation, the supervision is also based on data regulation. We have done many attempts before, such as the supervision of the China Banking Regulatory Commission. In the Internet field, it is also a new challenge to supervision. It is how to make good use of these data and conduct regulatory actions based on big data.

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