On January 2, 2018, the shift toward head-mounted mobile computing faced a major challenge. Unlike smartphones, which required relatively minor changes in user behavior, this new technology demanded a complete shift in how people interact with digital content. The concept of wearing a device on your head was still foreign to most. For widespread adoption, the industry had to first educate consumers about what this new experience actually was. As a result, it might take longer for head-mounted devices to become mainstream—perhaps more like the 15-year journey of personal computers rather than the two years it took for smartphones to gain traction.
In the early days of the Internet boom in the 1990s, we often looked at charts showing how quickly new technologies were adopted. The data suggested that adoption rates would keep increasing, and smartphones and tablets proved that trend. However, the success of these devices was built on a solid foundation. For example, in the U.S., it took 50 years to bring electricity to every home, 30 years for landline phones, 20 years for radios, 10 years for TVs, and less than five years for the Internet. AR and VR, by contrast, are more akin to the slow but steady rise of the personal computer, which took 15 years before reaching a tipping point.
Throughout the 1980s, personal computers were seen as niche tools for tech enthusiasts and wealthy individuals. They were expensive, used costly software, and required multiple programs just to get online. In 1993, I remember launching several separate applications to access the web—TCP/IP, a modem program, Netscape, and even IRC. It wasn’t until online services like AOL and Prodigy simplified the process that PCs became more accessible. Once everything was integrated into one easy-to-use platform, the PC reached a turning point. By 1996, owning a PC was no longer a luxury—it was a necessity.
The 21st century brought the first real smartphone: the BlackBerry. It allowed users to send and receive emails anywhere, anytime. Soon, smartphones evolved to include more features, and users could upgrade for free during regular phone replacements. This growth was built on a strong foundation, with wireless providers and manufacturers constantly improving the experience.
Mobile AR has been available on Android since 2015 and on iPhones in late 2017. Due to Apple’s large user base, thousands of people quickly got their hands on AR-enabled devices. But there are still challenges. Most apps are either games or lack meaningful functionality. Holding up a phone to see the world through an augmented lens is not the most natural or intuitive way to experience AR.
Currently, AR is more useful for businesses—like how PCs were in the 1980s—but it's not yet ready for the average consumer. There are fundamental issues with optics, field of view, and cost. Interfaces aren’t clear, and development is still in its early stages. Companies like Magic Leap have taken the lead, releasing their first AR headset, Magic Leap One, in December 2017, and planning to expand to developers in 2018.
Ironically, the biggest challenge isn’t the hardware itself, but the cloud. Issues like bandwidth, compression, and AI are still unresolved. A key missing piece is the “AR cloudâ€â€”a geospatial social layer that allows AR glasses to understand their surroundings. For VR, the problems are simpler but equally tough. Hand controls feel unnatural, motion sickness remains a problem, and the optics are still subpar. Even high-end headsets only offer around 110 degrees of view, making the screen effect visible.
Smartphones have made us impatient. We expect rapid progress, but VR and AR require time. Their development is slower, and we need to be patient. These technologies won’t happen overnight, but they have the potential to reshape how we interact with the digital world.
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